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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.